Iowa State's Tyler Miller (left) and Brendan Black (51) celebrate with the Cy-Hawk trophy after the Cyclones prevailed 20-19 against the Hawkeyes in Iowa City last season. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Ryan Flaherty put me on the spot.

I was inconspicuously having lunch with my second-grade daughter on Friday when Mr. Flaherty — the affable principal at Duncombe Elementary School here in Fort Dodge — announced to the entire room that I would soon be revealing the winner of the Iowa-Iowa State football game.

Not an educated guess, mind you. Ryan promised these kids I’d actually tell them what would happen.

With a microphone.

It was in jest, of course, but I felt the pressure of nearly a hundred faces — some wide-eyed believers, others understandably skeptical — staring at me in anticipation. I saw a lot of youngsters wearing Hawkeye attire, with just as many others donning Cyclone gear.

I laughed, because this is the perfect way to describe how I feel every year during Cy-Hawk week. On one hand, I think it’s a blessing to be an objective observer who truly strives for balanced coverage. As I’ve discussed with legendary WHO-TV Sports Director Keith Murphy many times before, being called a Hawkeye homer or hater by some and a Cyclone supporter or doubter by others just means we’re doing it right.

I’m also a people pleaser by nature, though, which means angering an entire legion of fans with a prediction year in and year out has never struck me as overly brilliant. Yet I keep doing it for professional purposes. So here we go…

I’ve always leaned heavily into the notion that home-field advantage matters in college sports. That formula worked here for a while, especially in a series where the talent tends to be relatively close.

Oddly enough, that script has been flipped in recent years. The visitor is 10-2 in the rivalry since 2012, with five consecutive victories. The Cyclones, who welcome the Hawkeyes to Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, haven’t taken down their rival in Ames since 2011.

Iowa State has looked the part of a Top-20 team so far, with a quality win over rated Kansas State in Ireland and a dismantling of South Dakota last week. Iowa, meanwhile, struggled to get the passing game going — stop me if you’ve heard that before — and stumbled out of the gates before distancing itself from Albany in its opener.

There is always the “on paper” analysis, and it’s tough to not back the Cyclones based on what we’ve seen to date. They’re ranked. They’re at home. They have more experience at many of the key positions. They’ve played better, even though the sample size is small. They won at Kinnick Stadium a year ago.

Yet there’s something about a short line from the oddsmakers — ISU is only favored by 3.5 points — that makes me hesitate. I thought it was strange last season when Iowa seemed superior for all intents and purposes and held the same advantages the Cyclones do now — the Hawkeyes were in the Top 25 and at home — yet Vegas set the line at just 2.5. Sure enough, unranked ISU prevailed on a last-second field goal.

This has similar vibes. I do think the Cyclones ultimately pull through, but it may be by the skin of their teeth. We’ll see. I’m hoping for — not guaranteeing, Mr. Flaherty 🙂 — a competitive, dramatic conclusion that leaves both sides feeling optimistic about the future, even if the end result on Saturday will disappoint half.

Eleven of the last 13 Cy-Hawk games have been decided by 10 points or less, including seven in a row. Iowa State has six victories over Iowa since 2006, and none have been by more than a field goal. For the sake of my reputation with those second graders, I’ll keep my fingers crossed that the trends continue.

Let’s go Iowa State 24, Iowa 22.

Eric Pratt is Sports Editor at The Messenger. Contact him via email at sports@messengernews.net, or on Twitter @ByEricPratt